5 min readFeb 28, 2026 06:10 AM IST
First published on: Feb 28, 2026 at 06:10 AM IST
Until a few years ago, we believed that the world’s worst trouble spot would be in the western Pacific due to simmering tensions between the Western powers and China over the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea. The world has heard the aggressive political rhetoric of the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations against China, matched by the deployment of American naval assets in great numbers, converting the region between China and Japan into a de facto conflict zone.
But in his second term, President Trump talks less about Taiwan and the South China Sea. It now appears that the world’s worst flashpoints have shifted from the western Pacific to the Indian Ocean. The US has begun a massive military build-up around Iran. If that mobilisation is any indication, Iran is going to be the new global flashpoint.
In his State of the Union Address earlier this week, Trump stated: “My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain — I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon. Can’t let that happen.” Referring to Operation Midnight Hammer, the American strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June last year, Trump complained that although “we wiped it out, they want to start all over again”. Meanwhile, in Geneva, in the final round of negotiations, US representatives are reportedly insisting that Iran give up its enrichment activities at all the nuclear plants, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.
Conflict over the Iranian nuclear issue would not be a limited one and would drag in the entire Indian Ocean region. Iran’s resistance to US pressure, which Trump’s special representative Steve Witkoff described as “frustrating” for the president, indicates that it has its own plans in case war breaks out. Iran conducted joint naval exercises with Russia recently in the Arabian Sea. While Israel will be a willing partner in any conflict involving Iran, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, which house important US military bases and assets, could also be dragged into the conflict.
Meanwhile, Trump is trying to reopen the Diego Garcia issue by insisting that the UK should not hand sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Ending a decades-old dispute, Mauritius and the UK formally signed an agreement in May last year under which the latter agreed to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. In turn, the Mauritius government would lease Diego Garcia back to the UK government for 99 years. The agreement is yet to be ratified by the UK parliament. Calling the ratification a “big mistake”, Trump intensified pressure on the Labour government, contending that he needed the Diego Garcia military base, which the US and UK jointly operate, in the event of a war against Iran. In a Truth Social post earlier this month, he wrote, “Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia… DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!”
The Diego Garcia issue is not limited to the Iran conflict alone. It is spilling over into a regional conflagration in the western Indian Ocean, too. In early February, Mohamed Muizzu, president of the Maldives, informed the country’s parliament that his government had “submitted written representations to the United Kingdom on 8 November 2024 and 18 February 2026, formally objecting to the UK’s decision to cede ownership of Chagos to Mauritius”. He went on to argue that historical evidence proves that “Chagos forms part of the sovereignty of the Maldivian state” and insisted that “we are committed to reclaiming the lost maritime area”. Although under the radar at the moment, this issue has the potential to create serious tensions between the Maldives and Mauritius, irrespective of what happens in Iran.
This week also witnessed tensions peaking between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif called it an “open war” as his country launched airstrikes on Kabul. Earlier, he also accused India of conniving with Afghanistan against it.
Indian Ocean powers like India, Indonesia, and others need to take these developments seriously. India supported the UK-Mauritius agreement to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. Iran and Afghanistan have been its traditional allies. In the newly evolving conflict in its immediate neighbourhood, can it remain silent? Is it time India took the lead in building trans-Indian Ocean partnerships to proactively address these regional challenges?
The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP
