4 min readMar 1, 2026 12:36 PM IST
First published on: Mar 1, 2026 at 12:36 PM IST
Iran has officially confirmed the death of its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, early this morning. The state-run television anchor was in tears while announcing that the country’s leader had “reached martyrdom” after a joint US-Israeli attack on his office early on Saturday.
If the US objective of this operation, codenamed ‘Epic Fury’ by Washington, was leader assassination (which follows leader abduction in Venezuela), this box could be ticked. It remains to be seen, however, if the operation will lead to a satisfactory regime change.
The US has explicitly identified regime change as its political objective. In an eight-minute video statement released on Truth Social at approximately 2:30 AM (US time EST) on Saturday (February 28), President Donald Trump outlined the operational goals: Destroying Iran’s missile and military capabilities, preventing the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the country and ultimately toppling its regime.
Trump has made it clear that the military attack was made to serve these purposes. More than 80 school children in Minab, southern Iran, were reported killed in the first wave of attacks, making the US action morally repugnant.
Reports from the region indicate that before the US launched Epic Fury, a last-minute “deal” on the nuclear issue was on the cards. Tehran had agreed to end its nuclear programme. However, the US decided to change goal posts, and the elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei became the greater priority.
Regime change is a chimera that the US has pursued for decades in several countries. It has little to show by way of enhancing human security in the countries where it has ventured with this goal. The most recent and costly example is that of Afghanistan, where the US embarked on the GWOT (global war on terror) after the tragedy of 9/11 (September 11, 2001) and unseated the Taliban from Kabul. The then US President George Bush envisioned a democratic Afghanistan with women being accorded the equality that the Taliban had brutally denied them, but the ground reality has been very different.
US military operations related to regime change in Afghanistan began on October 7, 2001 and concluded on August 30, 2021. Almost 20 years. It is estimated that the US spent about $ 2.3 trillion, and a total of 2,459 American military personnel were killed during the war, and 20,769 military personnel were wounded in action. The cost was colossal. What about the end result ? The Taliban strolled back to power in Kabul after the US withdrawal, and five years later, the clock has been turned back, including for women.
Other unsuccessful US-led regime changes include Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011). Prolonged instability and civil war like conditions have degraded human security in these nations and eroded US credibility.
Can Iran be different from these countries? The probability is very low. The governance index of the Iranian regime since the 1979 Revolution has been harsh and stifling. However, the conditions required for a satisfactory regime change are not in place.
There is a visible lack of a coherent and viable political opposition party in Iran, and more importantly, there is no unified, armed internal group ready to seize power. The IRGC remains the most potent armed force. Protests are leaderless and fragmented, and the suggestion that the former Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, in self-exile in the US, could be the consensus leader to steer Iran towards stability is far-fetched.
Recent history has demonstrated that air strikes alone rarely achieve regime change. Yes, they degrade military capabilities and destroy infrastructure, but do not lead to the occupation of territory or the installation of governments.
Epic Fury could lead to epic instability and suffering for the hapless Iranian people.
The writer is Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi
