Four years later, for Russia-Ukraine, peace remains elusive

Four years ago, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his “special military operation” against Ukraine, few would have predicted the scale or resilience of Kyiv’s response. What many assumed would be a swift collapse has instead become a grinding war of attrition, in which Russian forces are now making minimal gains at enormous costs. A study published on January 27 by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates total Russian casualties — killed, wounded, and missing — at around 1.2 million, roughly double the losses suffered by Ukraine. Since the invasion, Russian forces have seized about 12 per cent of additional Ukrainian territory and now control roughly 20 per cent of the country, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas captured before 2022. Clearly, Russia is falling short of Putin’s larger objective: Pulling Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.

Attritional warfare drags on despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker peace, given his desire for a US-Russia reset, on terms unfavourable to Kyiv. His 28-point plan is a betrayal not only of Ukraine, which would be required to cede territory and abandon any aspiration of joining NATO, but also of the principles of fairness and justice. US aid to Europe has been drying up since Trump’s return to power. But Europe throwing its full weight behind President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has enabled Ukraine to sustain its resistance. It sees the defence of Ukraine as essential to its own security.

Diplomacy is proceeding at a glacial pace. The latest round of US-mediated negotiations in Geneva last week concluded without a breakthrough, and Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday offered no assurances of support for Ukraine. Kyiv’s lead negotiator is scheduled to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner today, ahead of an anticipated trilateral meeting in March; two such rounds have already taken place in Abu Dhabi. Still, until Putin retreats from his maximalist demands over territory and Ukraine’s future political choices, a peace deal acceptable to both sides will remain elusive.