As the US-Israel war on Iran enters its second month, the conflict is exposing and widening existing transatlantic fractures. In the latest developments, Italy has denied the use of its Sicily airbase to US aircraft carrying weapons for the Iran war. Earlier, both Spain and France refused the use of their airspace to American planes involved in the attacks.
Poland has also refused an unofficial request to deploy one of its Patriot missile systems to the Gulf. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stressed that these systems are meant to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank: “Nothing is changing, and we are not planning to relocate them.”
By and large, European capitals are determined to avoid being drawn into the conflict, reflecting a sentiment earlier articulated by Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, who stated that “this is not Europe’s war.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed the broader European sentiment, stating that “the best outcome would be for this war to conclude as quickly as possible.” Many European countries have also urged Israel to avoid military operations in Lebanon. They have also expressed deep concern about Israel’s new “discriminatory” death penalty law, which is mainly applied to Palestinian prisoners. Pedro Sánchez has labelled it a “step towards apartheid”.
Donald Trump has been sharply criticising European NATO allies, labelling them “cowards” and “paper tigers”. The Trump administration has taunted Britain to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without US assistance and to “start learning how to fight” for itself, warning that America “won’t be there to help you anymore” because it believes its allies failed in supporting the US. Trump has also indicated a willingness to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, arguing that it should be up to European countries and Gulf states to take the lead in reopening it, as they depend on it more than the US. Apart from the UK, he has also been highly critical of France, which he has described as “very unhelpful”, while warning that “the US will remember”.
Earlier, 28 countries — including more than 20 European nations — expressed their willingness to “contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, it seems they are waiting for hostilities to cease and for the institutionalisation of a multilateral framework. It is apparent that the US initiated this war without consulting its European allies. Its objectives have shifted with each passing day. It is now asking them to undertake tasks that even its own formidable forces have been unable to accomplish, including reopening the Strait.
In the meantime, Ukraine has signed security cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar and is exploring a similar arrangement with the UAE. During his recent visit to the region, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed interest in sharing his country’s expertise in countering Russian-Iranian drones. The ongoing uncertainty about the war’s duration is causing serious concern among EU policymakers about its impact on energy prices, inflation, and overall growth prospects.
The challenge for European policymakers is that the Covid pandemic, followed by the Ukraine war and the resulting energy diversification away from Russia, has left them with very limited policy options to address the new challenges arising from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait. Mainly due to higher energy prices, inflationary pressures are building and may intensify further. If the war is prolonged and energy prices remain elevated, there will likely be renewed demands for subsidies similar to those provided during the 2022 energy crisis.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has now outlined a new war timeline of six to eight weeks and called on allies to “step up” in securing the Strait, emphasising that this should not be seen as the responsibility of the US alone. As average gas prices in the US reached $4 per gallon, Trump has indicated that the issue could be resolved within the next two to three weeks. On the one hand, Europe may be reluctant to step up at a time when the US appears to be already negotiating. Moreover, many Europeans do not believe Trump’s claim that “the hard part is already done”. Instead, they fear that the most difficult phase may still lie ahead, potentially requiring boots on the ground.
The US has acted largely in isolation, while major European allies have kept their distance. Some have condemned the war as illegal and in contravention of international law, while others have questioned the wisdom of the campaign. Many are also concerned about the economic fallout and the potential for a new wave of refugees if Iran were to collapse.
The conflict has come on the heels of the Greenland episode, further straining relations. At the same time, Europeans are taking more serious steps to reduce their dependence on the US, within the broader framework of strategic autonomy and efforts to rearm Europe. These shifts will take time to materialise. However, trust in the alliance is eroding on both sides of the Atlantic with each passing day.
The writer is Jean Monnet Chair and Professor at the Centre for European Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
