4 min readMar 5, 2026 03:42 PM IST
First published on: Mar 5, 2026 at 03:42 PM IST
In politics, there comes a time when the ruling power attains such strength that it appears undefeatable. When it is at this peak, only a disruption, a Black Swan event, can bring it down. From the lens of Indian politics, the dangerous, pre-planned and illegitimate attack of the US and Israel on Iran, leading to the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, could prove to be such a Black Swan event for the BJP.
Iran has responded swiftly with counterattacks on Israel and several Gulf nations that serve as US bases. While this was entirely expected by experts, it still caught the large expatriate community — the engine of the UAE and other Gulf countries — completely unaware. These expatriates are an unmatched economic powerhouse for their home countries; India has nearly one crore expatriates who invest billions of dollars in the economy through remittances, real estate, stock markets, and more. The UAE’s Golden Visa has successfully attracted new-age tech and start-up millionaires and billionaires from India, many of whom live in Dubai and run enterprises in India. But low-cost drones can crash trillion-dollar brands and investments. Official sources have reported that Iran has so far fired 189 missiles and 941 drones at the UAE. The threat is as real now as it was unimaginable before.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys enormous popularity amongst wealthy and expatriate Indians. Just 48 hours before the war broke out, he was in Israel, where he likely met every key decision maker. Alongside, the Prime Minister and his senior-most cabinet ministers have been in touch with the US President and the senior officials in the American administration during the making of the unfair India-US trade deal. Much has also been made of the PM’s spontaneous and visibly warm interactions with the heads of states and crown princes of the Gulf countries. So, he and his senior cabinet members have been in constant touch with every actor in the current war. Yet, the Government of India did nothing to warn the nearly one crore Indians in Dubai and elsewhere in the Gulf. This has the makings of a black swan, where those impacted are blissfully unaware, and those who are aware and responsible do not warn.
How will our people react now? The sell-off in the financial markets is a ticking timebomb, while oil price shocks have set the stage for a downward spiral of the Indian economy. In addition to the almost one crore expatriates, lakhs of travellers are still stuck in the region. With air travel closed, every passing hour raises expat distress and puts pressure on the Government. No Prime Minister can be immune to a crash in sentiment and popularity amongst his ardent followers. On the domestic front, a possible market crash, along with a falling rupee, could have a devastating domino effect on the economy. When millions of people lose their hard-earned money, go into debt due to EMIs and other loans, see the gains of real estate vanish, and face job insecurity, the language of politics changes. It is like the Titanic crashing into an iceberg.
How will the Prime Minister and his cabinet react? Their silence speaks volumes. Be it the sinking in the Indian Ocean of the IRIS Dena — the Iranian warship that participated in India’s MILAN 2026 naval exercise and had 150 naval officers and sailors on board — or the attacks on Tehran’s Gandhi Hospital and girls’ school, or the killing of the Iranian leadership, our silence is being seen as submission to Israel and the US. The PM’s visit to Israel and the skewed India-US trade deal have diminished the meaningful role that India can play in resolving the global conflict. A Black Swan event is the kind of disruption that can demolish the seemingly undefeatable, as the BJP is about to find out.
The writer is official spokesperson, Samajwadi Party
