cautiousoptimism.news
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Alex Wilhelm and Ron Miller pulled quarterly earnings from Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe, Workday, and SAP to test the thesis that AI coding agents are about to kill SaaS — and the numbers don’t cooperate. Salesforce’s Agentforce hit $1.4 billion ARR, ServiceNow’s Now Assist reached $600 million, and over a third of Adobe’s book is now AI-influenced revenue. None of these companies are shrinking. SAP’s Christian Klein made the sharpest point: AI agents need business data to function, and that data lives inside incumbent SaaS platforms, not in freshly generated codebases. The real pressure lands on small single-function tools, not integrated platforms that have spent years accumulating the cross-company data moats agents actually depend on.
