Oil market is heating up again with Brent crude already touching its five-week high of more than $94 a barrel as tensions between the US and Iran intensified. As tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer and traders grow cautious, analysts expect crude prices to remain broadly in the $90-100 a barrel range rather than stage a sustained climb towards $112. On Wednesday, Brent crude was trading at around $94.12 per barrel, while crude oil stood at around $87.38 per barrel.While geopolitical tensions have pushed prices higher, analysts say markets are not yet signalling a major structural disruption to global oil supplies.Manoranjan Sharma, chief economist, Infomerics Valuation and Rating Limited, said, “oil markets are clearly reflecting heightened geopolitical risk, relatively tight OPEC+ supply and the possibility of further disruptions to global energy flows. Yet current prices do not indicate that markets are fully pricing in a major, structural supply shock.”According to Sharma, oil would require a far more severe set of developments before prices could move towards $112 a barrel. These would include a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, additional production losses across the region and a significant increase in speculative positioning.“While such an outcome cannot be ruled out amid continuing geopolitical tensions, it currently appears to be a tail-risk scenario rather than the most likely trajectory for oil prices,” he told ANI.Sharma also pointed out that markets have become more cautious about forecasting extreme oil prices after earlier predictions of $150-200 a barrel during the outbreak of war failed to materialise.“Markets have also become more cautious about extreme oil-price forecasts. Earlier projections of $150-200 a barrel following the outbreak of war failed to materialise, suggesting that investors are already factoring in a substantial geopolitical risk premium. A sustained move to $120 is, therefore, not impossible, but it would probably require a fresh and significant escalation.”Apart from geopolitical developments, investors are also watching inventory data for near-term price direction.Deveya Gaglani, senior research analyst – commodities, Axis Direct, said, “Investors are closely monitoring crude oil inventory data due this evening; any unexpected drop in inventories could push NYMEX prices toward the $90 mark.”For domestic traders, Gaglani said MCX crude oil has resistance at 8,400, while 8,000 remains the key support level to watch.
