US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran is not going well. The American president thought the full might of the world’s sole superpower would bring unconditional surrender in 12 hours. Nearly two months in, capitulation is nowhere on the horizon. Both sides would like the conflict to end, and I can offer Trump a piece of advice on how to make that happen: Just stay mum.
“A whole civilisation will die tonight,” he posted on his social media site, “never to be brought back again”. That was two weeks ago, and his threat to murder 92 million people turned out to be a bluff. Which is good. But not exactly a confidence-building measure.
This was hardly the only time he warned of mass annihilation. Three days before this, he’d set a deadline for destruction: “48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them,” and the next day, “Open the F*****g’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH!” Over the next fortnight, Trump promised a medley of war crimes: Unless his adversaries accepted his terms, the president vowed, “the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.”
It’s hard enough to negotiate with people upon whom you’ve just (in the words of his defence chief) “rained death and destruction”. But it’s even harder when you’re interrupting ceasefire talks with random pledges of genocide. For a man who’s paid a variety of ghostwriters to publish at least 16 books in his name — every one of them touting his own skill at forging business partnerships — Trump is remarkably ignorant about the Art of the Deal.
Why does he keep sabotaging his own efforts? The most basic reason is that he doesn’t understand the very concept of negotiation. The idea of mutual compromise is simply not one he comprehends. If you’re buying mangoes in the market, you might offer the vendor half of what he’s asking for a kilo; he might bring the price down by a quarter, and everyone’s happy. If Trump were ever to do his own shopping, he’d just scream insults at the poor phal-wallah, demand the fruit for free, and wonder why he’s sent off without a nice ripe Alphonso.
Another reason might be the factor that underlies every decision he makes: Corruption. Prediction websites such as Kalshi and Polymarket offer online gamblers the chance to make bets on nearly any political event you might imagine — and someone with inside information about the actions of the US president could possibly make a small fortune.
One of the wallets that profited most handsomely from bets on the ups and downs of the Iran war was created just before Trump’s initial bombing began on February 28. As of press time, Polymarket will let you wager on “Will Trump publicly insult someone Friday?” at 89 cents for “yes”, and just 12 cents for “no”.
Perhaps the most convincing explanation for his pointless spasms is that he just can’t help himself. Impulse control has never been Trump’s strong suit, and he appears to have given up even the pretence of trying. During the initial attack on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal, his own “aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful.”
It’s no secret that Trump is getting more erratic as he approaches his 80th birthday. He regularly naps during Cabinet sessions. He posts intemperate rants at 2 am. He frequently interrupts meetings with visiting heads of state to deliver windy discourses on the construction of a White House ballroom the size of a pharaoh’s tomb.
There comes a time for every family when it’s necessary to take away Grandpa’s car keys. But this is the most powerful man in the world, and his keys control access to nuclear armageddon. When a person threatens the annihilation of a civilisation, and has the unfettered means of carrying out that threat, it’s long past time for everyone to take his threats seriously.
Will Trump actually make good on his most horrific fulminations? There’s no way to know. The US has already committed apparent war crimes, including the destruction of a girls’ school, which left some 170 dead. Trump’s self-styled “Secretary of War” proudly announced the setting aside of what he termed “stupid rules of engagement” and has not clarified what that means for the legal restrictions preventing the US military from engaging in indiscriminate slaughter.
Trump clearly wants an exit strategy: Petrol costs have skyrocketed, and Americans of all political persuasions reject another “forever war” like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. The best deal he might strike would simply be a return to the status quo ante: Iran has never had nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles capable of reaching anywhere near the US, so there isn’t even a pressing challenge for him to turn back. He can’t oust the Iranian regime, and no power on earth can change the geographical facts of the Strait of Hormuz. The most Trump can hope for is to turn the clock back to conditions before he started a pointless war.
If he has any hope of doing this, the first thing he needs to do is stop talking.
Blank is the author of Arrow of the Blue-Skinned God: Retracing the Ramayana Through India and Mullahs on the Mainframe: Islam and Modernity Among the Daudi Bohras
