The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is, perhaps, a crisis too valuable to ignore. While some disruption is inevitable in the near term, within a timeframe of 5-10 years, more sustainable solutions may be found by realigning our energy dependence from external to internal sources.
What are these internal sources? We could “drill, baby drill” for oil and gas off the Andaman & Nicobar islands. However, this is a very capital-intensive undertaking with uncertain outcomes, and if successful, it will, based on evidence, take decades to exploit. Commercialising fossil-fuel alternatives from locally available resources is imperative, along with an alternative supply and distribution chain for LNG.
Based on current and emerging technologies, there are three feasible pathways for greater energy resilience: Widening electricity applications in transport, cooking, industrial process heat, and production of e-fuels; biofuels from agricultural residues and manure, municipal solid and liquid waste, and forestry biomass; increasing the share of natural gas in primary energy, and integrating small-scale LNG (SSLNG). We take up each in turn:
First, India’s targets for non-fossil electricity are ambitious: 500 GW by ߮ 1,800 GW and 100 GW nuclear power by 2047. This will require scaling up energy storage using the Internet of Things and AI to minimise capital investment, enabling increased use of EVs and electric cooking. We also have to seriously invest in domestic rare earths extraction. India has significant rare earth deposits.
Second, India has considerable sustainable biomass resources and crop residues: A total of c. 950 mmta from grain crops, oilseed crops, sugarcane, cotton, and horticulture (besides spoilt produce). After use as cattle-feed and crop fertility management, the net is c. 400 mmta, most of which is used in inefficient and polluting ways. The annual yield of forest biomass is 260 mmta, again mostly put to low-value use. Such biomass may be used for a range of biofuels from pellets and briquettes to biochar and pyrolytic oil. It may also be used to produce syngas, from which, in turn, hydrocarbons may be produced by the established Fischer-Tropsch process.
India has c. 300 million cattle and c. 1 billion poultry, which generate about 300 mmta of dry manure. This could generate c. 100 billion cubic metres of biogas/year, or over 55 billion cubic metres of biomethane by well-established technology. Current natural gas (methane) consumption is c. 70 billion cubic metres, of which imports are c. 35 billion cubic metres. Biomethane can thus, in principle, fully replace current imports of LNG in all uses, including producing higher-value biofuels and industrial feedstock. It may be distributed through natural gas pipelines and SSLNG infrastructure.
Third, the key to increasing the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix is to widen its sourcing and distribution. The wide global distribution of natural gas sources means that it is immune to cartelisation, unlike oil. We must negotiate long-term contracts with new sources less susceptible to disruption. Regarding distribution, while India has c. 25,000 km of natural gas pipelines, it is uneconomic to extend the pipeline network for smaller-scale demands, and needs to be supplemented, especially for city gas distribution (CGD), dispersed industrial use, and trucking, with dedicated infrastructure for SSLNG.
All three pathways are technically feasible and important for our climate mitigation goals. However, biomass and manure are low-value, low-bulk-density commodities. There are significant logistical difficulties in procuring and transporting them, or more concentrated intermediates, to processing and distribution centres. Entrepreneurial skill and imagination are needed to overcome this problem. Such entrepreneurship should be encouraged by payments for environmental services (not subsidies), carbon credits, and premiums for mitigating the risk of disruption of petroleum imports. Financial institutions must be pressed to finance these business models, as for “priority sectors”.
Ghosh is distinguished fellow, TERI and a former secretary to the Government of India. Krishnan is the India chair of Energy, Green Economy, Climate WG of the BRICS Business Council
