Trump’s Saudi Arabia nuclear gambit marks important shift

Washington’s decision to sign a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia marks an important shift in Middle East geopolitics — and highlights the growing role of advanced technologies in the regional power balance. The agreement will face close scrutiny in the US Congress, along with opposition from Israel’s supporters and the non-proliferation community. The deal will help Riyadh build a civilian nuclear energy programme and reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons. Washington wants American companies to build Saudi reactors and secure a long-term position in its nuclear infrastructure.

The main controversy is the possibility of a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia at a time when Washington seeks to roll back Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Yet that contradiction also points to the strategic rationale behind the agreement — the need to address Saudi concerns about the regional nuclear balance. The growth of Iranian power relative to its Arab neighbours has already encouraged the UAE to establish a civilian nuclear programme. A Saudi enrichment facility would be built by American companies and operate under US supervision. Such arrangements could reduce proliferation risks while giving Riyadh a measure of strategic parity with Tehran. Washington is also linking the nuclear deal to Saudi recognition of Israel. Riyadh has so far resisted joining the Abraham Accords. The nuclear agreement could therefore become part of a wider triangular negotiation among Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv over regional security, Palestinian statehood and the future of Arab-Israeli relations.

India is largely absent from the emerging nuclear industrial competition in the Middle East. This reflects decades of resistance in Delhi and Mumbai to reforming the atomic energy sector.  The US-Saudi agreement should accelerate the implementation of the SHANTI Act and help prepare Indian industry to participate in the export of nuclear technologies across the Middle East. Politically, Delhi should support the US-Saudi agreement, underwritten by ironclad non-proliferation safeguards, and offer assistance to Riyadh’s civilian nuclear programme.