Lucknow: The forthcoming UP Assembly elections could see the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal, a key ally of the BJP, getting restricted to contesting less than half the number of seats it fought in its stronghold of western Uttar Pradesh during the 2022 Assembly polls, when the party was in alliance with the Samajwadi Party.The possibility has attracted attention amid ongoing discussions within the NDA over seat-sharing arrangements ahead of the high-stakes state elections.The RLD contested 33 seats in 2022 and managed to win eight — Chhaprauli, Thana Bhawan, Budhana, Siwalkhas, Meerapur, Purqazi (SC), Shamli and Sadabad. The party came second on 19 seats, third on five and fourth on one seat, Kheragarh. Not surprisingly, the RLD cannot stake claim on the 25 seats it contested in 2022 as they are now represented by the BJP.RLD sources said that the party initiated back-channel negotiations with the BJP to allow it to contest some of the seats that the BJP lost to the SP in west UP and the Rohilkhand region. They include Sardhana, Kithore, Behat, Moradabad Rural, Charra, Baheri and Bhojipura. The party was also in talks with the BJP to contest a couple of seats in the central and east UP region.When contacted, RLD state president Ramashish Rai said that the party was very well placed in its stronghold pockets. “Nevertheless, we would follow the alliance dharma with the BJP to ensure the win of the NDA. For this, we will adjust to the number of seats we get to contest,” he said while speaking to TOI.RLD sources said that the party sought to bolster its foothold amongst not only its traditional vote base of Jat and Gurjar but also amongst Muslims, who have historically voted in favour of the Samajwadi Party or the Congress. In the process, the RLD could allow the BJP to expand its social coalition without sacrificing its sitting legislators. At the same time, this also provides the RLD an opportunity to maintain relevance despite a smaller number of seats.The real test for the RLD in the next Assembly elections will, in fact, not be the number of seats it contests but the number it wins. If the party contests around 15 seats and wins 8-10, it can claim success and strengthen its position within the NDA. Conversely, contesting a larger number but winning only a handful would weaken its bargaining power in future elections.BJP sources said that the alliance with the RLD was less about seat numbers and more about social engineering while keeping a Jat-dominated outfit under the NDA umbrella.Analysts, nevertheless, said that a sharp reduction in the number of seats could potentially stoke dissatisfaction amongst the local influential leaders, who may eventually cross over to the opposition camp. This, sources said, could also limit the party’s independent organisational growth while increasing its dependence on the BJP for political relevance.
