Extend the US-Iran ceasefire, give diplomacy a chance

The two-week Iran-US ceasefire comes to an end on April 22. The steps taken towards de-escalation during this time may seem to have been undone over the past weekend. Less than 24 hours after Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial vessels, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intervened to close it again. Since then, the US has seized an Iranian cargo vessel attempting to bypass the blockade. Iran has vowed swift retaliation, having already fired on three commercial ships, including two Indian-flagged vessels. Amid renewed escalation, there is little clarity on Tehran attending the second round of talks in Pakistan, even as a US delegation reportedly heads to Islamabad. The narrow window for de-escalation opened by the pause of hostilities in Lebanon appears to be closing unless both sides decide otherwise.

For the reciprocal, step-by-step exchange of concessions in diplomacy, what is vital is the space for negotiations. For Tehran, the ceasefire in Lebanon (its precondition for talks) and Donald Trump’s assurance that Israel would be “prohibited” from further strikes appeared sufficient to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But when the US continued with the blockade, the IRGC reversed course, signalling the possibility of escalation. The episode suggests that the hardline IRGC overruled the civilian leadership on the Strait. A deepening divide between the hardliners and those open to diplomatic overtures could complicate matters. Trump, on his part, has reverted to his familiar flip-flop rhetoric, warning on social media that the US would strike “every single power plant, and every single bridge” if Iran refuses a deal, even as his representatives are going to Islamabad for negotiations. Both sides are thus seeking leverage to strengthen their bargaining positions.

Decades of hostility and mistrust between the two warring sides, and the structural obstacles that have accumulated, cannot be resolved over a single weekend even after 21 hours of direct negotiations. While after the breakdown of talks in Islamabad the last time around, both sides kept the door to dialogue ajar, recent escalations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman threaten to shut it. The ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon are also intertwined. Failure on one front risks derailing the other. Tehran and Washington must give diplomacy a chance. For this, the ceasefire must be extended — and sustained — across all fronts. The alternative — a return to intense conflict, disrupted energy supplies and soaring prices — is reason enough.