Lucknow : The state is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, according to the long term forecast issued by the Indian Meteorological department on Monday.According to Met officials, prediction of monsoon rains in India depends largely on the three phenomena.Firstly, ‘El Nino-Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO), which is a periodic, natural fluctuation in tropical Pacific ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure. It includes a warm phase (El Nino), a cold phase (La Nina) and a neutral state, influencing global climate patterns, monsoon strength, and ocean ecosystems.Strong La Nina strengthens the rainy season in India, whereas monsoon is weak when El Nino dominates. ENSO-neutral conditions represent the phase where both El Nino (warm) nor La Nina (cool) are not active.Secondly, the ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ (IOD) phenomenon, defined by oscillating sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, if positive leads to good monsoon.Thirdly, if the snow cover over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia during winter and spring is below normal, it is favorable for the monsoon.Senior scientist at the state Met department, Mohammad Danish said there has been below normal snow cover this year in Eurasia and IOD is also expected to turn positive, which means that these two factors are favourable for the monsoon.However, he added, the La Nina is weak and can change to ENSO-neutral and there is a strong possibility that this transition would create El Nino conditions during most of the monsoon period, leading to a drop in rainfall activity.“Considering the combined influence of all the factors, the overall probability indicates that monsoon rainfall in UP is likely to be below normal this year,” he predicted.
